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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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