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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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