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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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