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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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