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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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