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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- The University of Queensland
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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