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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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