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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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Showing 706 to 710 news of total 6871 |
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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