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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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