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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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