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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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