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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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