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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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