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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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