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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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