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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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