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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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