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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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