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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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