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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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