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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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