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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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