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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 19 August 20
MISC MARKS ITS MAIDEN FORAY INTO MAJOR DEEP-WATER PROJECT IN LATIN AMERICA WITH MERO 3 FPSO
MISC Berhad (MISC) is pleased to announce its acceptance of Letter of Intent (LOI) from Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) for the provisi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS | INTERMODAL
Since the Covid-19 outbreak, governments and central banks around the globe have been using their ammunition and stimulus packages to keep their ec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
Accordi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN SUBDUED THIS FISCAL AMID WEAK DEMAND, HIGH INVENTORY - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Coal offtake is improving gradually as lockdown eases
Coal prices are expected to remain subdued to weak demand and high inventory l ...
Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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