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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 20 August 20
MINER BHP CONFIRMS PLANS TO EXIT THERMAL COAL SECTOR - THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The head of mining giant BHP has laid out plans for a reshaping of its global operations by seeking to quit thermal coal mining, offload some cokin ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
LONDON RETAINS ARBITER CROWN - BALTIC EXCHANGE | HFW
Fears that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union would dent the reputation of the nation’s capital as the leader in maritime ar ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
U.S. COAL STOCKPILES STEADILY INCREASE AFTER REACHING LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE IN 2019 - EIA
After reaching their lowest level in more than a decade in March 2019, U.S. coal stockpiles steadily increased to 152 million tons in April 2020, r ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.26 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.92 points Monday, down 0.26 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL INDIA TRADE UNIONS DEFER DAY-LONG STRIKE: PTI
The unions had decided to go on strike against the commercial mining and the proposed divestment or buyback of shares of Coal India Ltd (CIL).
...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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