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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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