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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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