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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 04 September 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN MIN 5,700 NCV COAL FOR NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 260,000 MT Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal November, 2020 loading. Acc ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
BRINGING SERVICES OF FTCCI CLOSER TO THE EXPORTERS AT GMR AIR CARGO COMPLEX AT SHAMSHABAD
Press Release: “FTCCI Trade Facilitation Services at your doorstep now” says J.S. Chandrashekar, IRS., Principal Commissioner of Custom ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7% IN APR-AUG; OFF TAKE DIPS 13.4% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
In the month of August coal off take also increased 9.3% y-o-y to 44.34 MT as compared with 40.57 MT in the same period last year.
C ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The imminent global shift towards eco-friendliness has caused divide among the shipping community because there is no outlined, clear-cut way via w ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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