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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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