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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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