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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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