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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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