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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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