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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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