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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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