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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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