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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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