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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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