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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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