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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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