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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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