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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. LPG is a clean, energy efficient and portable fuel that is being marketed at an afforda ...
Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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