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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. LPG is a clean, energy efficient and portable fuel that is being marketed at an afforda ...
Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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