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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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