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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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