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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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