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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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