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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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