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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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