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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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