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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 02 September 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE DIVES FURTHER IN SEPTEMBER DUE TO SUBDUED DEMAND & GLOBAL OVERSUPPLY
Subdued demand & global oversupply pushed down this month's HBA
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
WHY INDIA CAN'T MATCH THE GULF REGION'S RECORD-LOW SOLAR TARIFFS - IEEFA
5-10% annual decline in tariffs estimated for the next decade
A number of countries in the Gulf region have set record-low prices for solar in ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long ...
Monday, 31 August 20
DEFECTIVE PASSAGE PLANNING: UNSEAWORTHINESS OR A NAVIGATIONAL DECISION? THE CMA CGM LIBRA QUESTION SAILS ON TO THE UK SUPREME COURT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The UK Supreme Court has granted leave to appeal the recent decision in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG ( ...
Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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