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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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