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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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