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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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