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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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