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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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