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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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