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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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