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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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