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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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