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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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