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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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