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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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