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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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