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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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